Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Make Haste while the Sun Shines

Another aspect on airlines and game theory....last year, my family and I were to go to the UK for my cousin's wedding. We had decided earlier in the year to go on the trip, and having the typical planner family that I have, everyone decided to purchase their tickets 6 months before the holidays (they felt the earlier they bought their tickets, the cheaper they'd be...not quite sure where that reasoning came from). Being the bargain hunter that I am, I chose to wait for a couple of months before the actual departure date. My family kept asking when I would purchase my ticket, but I kept putting it off. I now know that I was playing a game. See, I love to shop and have an innate ability to tell when a good sale is coming my way...okay, maybe not an innate ability, but experience. I knew that the airlines would most likely have some deals pop up as the holiday season came around. It was in the fall, but it was not a high travel period, so I took my chances and waited. If I purchased my ticket with my family members, I'd have ended up paying $700, if I purchased at the current period, I'd pay $625 (already less than what my fam had paid), and if I waited a bit longer, I could get the ticket for way less....I knew that cos of my experience...and so I waited. One day, the ticket price went all the way down to $550, but I waited....I waited and waited until the ticket prices became $900. See, I had played the game, but I had not made the move when I was supposed to. The $550 was the best price those tickets ever were, but I assumed that the airline industry were functioning based on my perception of rationality. In my mind, it was rational to have a dirt cheap ticket in a non-peak travel period, but in their mind, they were in it to make money. They gave me a grace period, but as the saying goes, "you snooze, you lose".

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