Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Never Ending Battle Between Man and Nature: The Mount Everest Disaster of 1996

So, what really happened during the deadliest year of the mount everst climb? There were quite a number of games taking place on that day. For one, the climbing party knew that regardless of what point they were at on the climb, they had to turn course by 2:00 p.m. Experience had shown that not returning at that point could result in disaster, but the expedition party chose to go on. That was a game. If they stayed on course (as they were still not at the summit), they could push for, and still try to make their goal of reaching the summit. They knew that a game with nature would most probably result in a win for nature and a loss for them, but the payoff of the win was more important than not attempting the climb.

The payouts are as follows:
Man continues and storm occurs: 2 (the second least appealing option for the expeditiors)
Man continues and no storm occurs: 4 (the most appealing option for them)
Man turns back and storm occurs: 3 (the next best option for the adventurers)
Man turns back and storm doesnot occur: 1 (the least appealing option for these adventrous spirits)

These payouts explain it all. Because of the nature of adventurers, their highest payout is in the accomplishment of their goal. The goal of the expeditors was to reach the summit of Mount Everst that day, and so in analysing the situation and the payouts of each decision that was to be made on that day (both outlooks influenced by the experiences of the expedition leads which played a huge role in the judgement of these decision makers on that fateful day), the leads of the expedition chose to go with the highest payoffs for them.....continue on the path with the hope that the oxygen will suffice and that there would be no snow storm that would catch them off guard. Unbeknownst to them, nature's often unpredictable "nature" reigned supreme that day and claimed the lives of several of the expedition party. Several others survived but this was due to their perceived payoffs of the climb. For them, the highest payoff was to survive so turning back (regardless of whether the snow storm occurred or not) at the appropriate time had the highest payoff for them.

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